[D4, Late morning-remainder of day] The Maester's conclave

The Maester's conclave
The first day of the Maester's conclave will admit learned individuals who can talk their way in.

The maester discuss the changing seasons - has Spring truly come? Grandmaester Orwyle argues that the current thaw is a false spring, while the more radical maester Darren say that spring has arrived and it is time to buy seed and set it in the ground.

Participants: any number per house. Costs one timeslot, and is open from late morning until early night (inclusive). Maester stay up late and talk shop.

Challenge:

Persuade (charm/convince/intimidate) TN 9 - to enter
Knowledge (education) TN (blind) - to understand nature's mysteries
Persuade (convince) - TN (9) - to convince the audience of your thinking [only this persuade roll is used in the consequences step]

Consequences
Agreeing with either man increases their disposition towards you by one step, but requires your house to commit resources to support that stance.
Get it wrong and you lose two wealth in wasted effort.
Get it right (and hit the blind knowledge TN) and your house earns one wealth from its wise preparations as you call the market correctly.
Highest [persuade (convince) roll + (2x knowledge roll total)] gets +1 glory, as their persuasive words are repeated throughout court, even if their theory is subsequently proved flawed by events.
If Grandmaester Orwyle's faction (Winter is coming) prevails = +1 Green Score
If Maester Darren's faction (Winter isn't coming!) prevails = +1 Black score
Some of you may want to support a particular faction simply to boost its score and earn friendship with a black/green supporter. For shame, anti-science political types, but this is Westeros, so go ahead.

.
[url=Persuasion][/url]: 5d6k4 [url=BoA][/url] 17

Nathan had sat for more than an hour listening as the debate raged on. For what was ostensibly supposed to be a group of scholarly men in pursuit of the truth, they spent an inordinate amount of time trying very hard to be right. He could also sense the political agenda that wove it's way through the deliberations. That offended him, to be honest. A wrong decision here could cost many lives.

"
If I may,"
said Nathan as he stood. He was richly dressed, to give his words weight in lieu of a scholarly reputation. "
But it seems to me that you gentlemen argue like fishwives at a market rather than Maesters at a Conclave. This is not a theoretical question, and Winter will come one way or another. No man here has any say in that."


The room fell silent, some men insulted. Some men abashed.

"
If you say it will be Winter, and that this is just a lull, then preparations will be made. Money will be spent. Lords will have to look to ensure that their people are cared for. If you are wrong, then some of those preparations will be unnecessary and there will be some loss of wealth. How terribly unfortunate."
The last sentence was said so blandly it bordered on scorn.

"
If you say it will be Spring, no such preparations will be made. If you are wrong, then those preparations will have been necessary and there will be those that starve and die because they were not made."


"
And what does a boy know of such things!"
interjects Maester Darren.

"
Really Maester Darren?"
replies Nathan, his voice as smooth as glass. "
Is that your counter argument? Does my age negate the wisdom of my words? Perhaps I am wrong because of the colour of my eyes or the way I brush my hair."
Those sparkling blue eyes were currently pinioning the Maester.

"
You are right, Maester Darren. I know little about such things, so naturally I asked those who would. Ask the farmer if he is starting to plant spring crops. Ask the shepherd if his sheep are lambing in numbers to indicate spring is here. Ask the hunter if bears are preparing to mate or still eating for winter hibernation."


[url=Knowledge][/url]: 4d6k3 13 +2 BoA

Nathan smiled at the assembled group. "
I have asked them. Have any of you?"


[url=Persuasion][/url]: 5d6k4 [url=BoA][/url] 18

[+1 Dispositon (Grandmaester Orwyle)]

.

(OOC note: this occurs in the Early Afternoon)

Well, that was surprisingly easy. Daveth thought as he entered the conclave. I was somehow expecting them to be rather stricter. Not complaining, though. And he enters the main room, with a larger argument of maesters than he'd ever seen before. And thank you to whichever one of you it was who taught me that particular collective noun, all those years ago. Wish I could remember who.
[url=Charming way into Maester's Conclave (9)][/url]: 4d6 11

An hour later, Daveth almost had his head in his hands. I am used to feeling like I'm probably the smartest guy in the room. I did not expect to get that feeling *here*, of all places. However, picking some of them up and slapping some sense into them is probably as politically unwise as it is physically impossible for me. As part of his duties as assistant steward, Daveth had spent a lot of time looking into this exact issue, and he was confident he know the answer. The problem is Maester Darren. Why oh why did the Princess's man have to be so utterly *wrong*. What if the support I give the Queen's man here is what makes matters close enough that a civil war breaks out, when otherwise the Queen wouldn't have the confidence? I could easily alter my arguments to suit Maester Darren's agenda. I'd be responsible for the deaths of hundreds, but isn't any step towards war a far greater evil? Daveth frowns and shakes his head. No. It's not my place to carry the weight of the world. I'm a scholar. It's my job to reveal the truth. If those more powerful than I use that for evil, that is on them. All I can do is my duty. And I will not betray the truth on a *maybe*.

[url=Winter is going?][/url]: 5d6k4 20 (Ha! You're my bitch now, science!)

At a momentary lull, in the aftermath of what, in less august company, might have been termed a 'screaming match', Daveth stood. "
Honoured Maesters, I am Daveth Coldbrook. While I do not share your chains, I have studied this matter extensively - both a thorough investigation of the current circumstances, and a study of historical accounts written by your predecessors, and I believe that Maester Gormon wrote the definitive book on the subject in 36AL."
And wasn't that a lucky find. "
As you all no doubt know,"
those of you who bothered to do your duty, anyway "
That year, the kingdom had a false spring. The maesters read the signs wrong, and claimed winter was over, Maester Gormon being key to the decision. Due to a variety of other factors compounding the issue, the effects were ... tragic, even if not devastating to the kingdom as a whole. His guilt over his role in that debacle drove him to write meticulously detailed notes on exactly what signs to look for to tell whether winter was truly over, so that his mistake would never repeat itself.

"
I do not want to bore you all repeating what you all already know. But Maester Gormon wrote very clearly on over a dozen warning signs, from the differing behaviour of insects, particularly beetles, to the different chromatic spectrum you can get from the light of a sunset through a glass. And I tell you now: every single one of those signs indicate that this is a false spring. We *will* have a short sharp shock back to winter before Spring arrives properly. It behoves us to fulfil our duty to the realm and the crown by ensuring that this truth is widely disseminated. It is, after all, in *no-one's* interest"
significantly not looking at Maester Darren "
that the realm be harmed by an inaccurate prediction.

"
Thank you for your time and attention, gentlemen."


[url=Persuade Maesters of the Conclave][/url]: 4d6 10

(OOC: I'm hoping that nothing I said there violates canon or basic logic too badly.)
[persuade (convince) roll + (2x knowledge roll total)] = 50
[+1 Dispositon (Grandmaester Orwyle)]

[OOC: winter is indeed coming.

+1 to Green score.

+1 wealth to Coldbrook and Bartheld (please mark this in house resources.

+1 Glory to Daveth]

OOC I received special dispensation from the reader to participate in this event.

[url=Can i come in (charm) masters Conclave][/url]: 6d6k5 20
[url=Knowlege education TN Unknown (winter is coming)][/url]: 6d6k4 21
[url=No winter really is coming (convince)][/url]: 5d6 19

Total 61 = 19 + (21x2)

Septon Arlyn was always interested to learn more, that is what drew him to the maesters conclave. Representing himself has a man of he cloth whom was interested in what the old men had to say opened doors for him, as even the maesters wished to impress the Faith.

However after hearing the Maester Darren spout conjecture and lies, trying to convince the Moot that Grandmaester Orwyle did not know what he was talking about. Septon Arlyn stepped in "
My Lords,"
He begins formally, "
You all have a valuable opinion in the eyes of the gods"
Although some of you are simply crooks, "
But I have to say that winter is coming. I have been amoung the smallfolk and their elders all agree that winter will be here, for the cows have begun fattening themselves up, Insects are busy gather materials to build deep homes and they have stopped breeding. Don't let this warm weather fool you, we are headed into a deep dark winter and we must prepare. For it is better to be prepared and not need it then foolishly sow and loose everything."